Characteristics and Projection of Rainfall Erosivity Distribution in the Hengduan Mountains

This study examines the spatiotemporal variations of rainfall erosivity in Hengduan Mountains, known for their rugged terrain and high potential soil erosion risks, over past 30 years. Additionally, it investigates changing trends between 2025 2040 under Sustainable Development Pathway 2–4.5 (SSP2–4.5), using four Global Climate Models (GCMs) based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The results indicate: (1) annual distribution Mountains exhibited significant seasonal variations, ranking order summer > autumn spring winter a scale. (2) Over years, there has been slight decrease precipitation corresponding increase erosivity. Periodic extreme values occur every 6–8 (3) Spatially, demonstrates decreasing gradient from southeast to northwest. There is positive correlation precipitation, while negative exists with elevation vertical direction. Furthermore, northeastern part exhibits an increasing trend erosivity, southern region experiences trend. (4) Considering joint driving forces increased erosive events, expected significantly future, posing more severe risk this region.